[Picture Credit: ELNET]

Israel is about to achieve total victory. If Europe’s three main powers wish to reap the benefits of this victory and to shape the future of the Middle East, they should trade legalistic formalism for political realism.

ELNET’s first and previous strategic dialogue between the “E3” countries (Britain, France, Germany) and Israel took place in October 2023, less than three weeks after the October 7 tragedy. We were still in shock. Our sons, including mine, were about to enter the Gaza Strip. The dialogue ended on October 26, two days before the IDF’s ground operation in Gaza.

Being in London during Israel’s darkest hour, I visited Churchill’s war room to uplift my mood. Paraphrasing the great Winston, I said at the dialogue that Israel “Must, and will, teach its enemies a lesson which they, and the world, will never forget.”

One year later, I am glad to say that this lesson has been taught, is still being taught, and will continue to be taught.

One year ago, Israel was humiliated, traumatized, and threatened by Iran’s multi-front ring of Jihadist aggression. Today, Israel has gained the upper hand. The Iranian ring has been dismantled, and Iran is the one on the defensive. Three of Iran’s proxies –Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime– have been either neutralized or eliminated. The Houthis in Yemen can still fire missiles at Israel and disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, but they are vulnerable to Israel’s airstrikes. As for Iran itself, its two massive strikes at Israel –in April and in October 2024– have been humiliating for the Islamic Republic. So has Israel’s devastating counterstrike on October 26.

The war that erupted on October 7 was, from day one, a war between Iran and Israel. Israel has not fully won that war yet, but it will. Never has the prospect of a large-scale military strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure been more feasible and more likely. The crumbling of the Iranian axis and the incoming Trump administration have turned “total victory” from a slogan to a palpable reality.

Because Israel is emerging as the Middle East’s greatest power with a fully supportive U.S. administration in the coming four years, it is time for E3 countries to rethink their Middle East policy. And this rethinking must take into account a paradox: The Russia-Iran axis has suffered a serious setback, but Russia is unlikely to be defeated in Ukraine.

To complete the defeat of Iran and to prevent the collapse of Ukraine, the E3 should replace legalistic formalism with political realism. This doesn’t mean Europe should abandon its principles. But it does mean that it is about time to realize that complex problems cannot be managed, let alone solved, with simplistic slogans.

There will be no new nuclear deal with Iran. Ukraine will not recover its 1991 borders. Establishing a 22^nd failed and autocratic Arab state in Israel’s heartland will not bring peace and stability to the Middle East. The Islamic republic can be defeated, but the Russian empire can only be contained.

If E3 countries wish to be constructive in the Middle East in the coming four years, they should fully cooperate with the U.S. and with Israel on the war against Iran’s axis of aggression, and they should keep Qatar’s malign influence in check. In Europe, E3 should help contain Russia not only by cooperating with the U.S. on reaching a sustainable compromise with Putin, but also by significantly increasing European defense spendings. The two are related, because NATO can only contain Russia from a position of strength.

Cooperation between Israel and Germany is a case in point: German-made submarines help Israel deter Iran, and Israeli-made anti-missiles systems help Germany deter Russia.

Finally, E3 must be on the same page at the United Nations. This organization has long been hijacked by autocracies that abuse the letter and the spirit of international law against the free world. Democracies do a disservice to their own values by playing into the hands of this sham. Precisely because the free world has become a minority at the UN, the least it can do is to stick together on votes at the Security Council, at the General Assembly, and at the Human Rights Council. This should start with E3 countries.

The past year has brought important achievements and victories. But we must remain resolute, united, and clear-sighted. To quote Churchill again: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

—

This text summarizes the author’s remarks at ELNET’s second E3-Israel strategic dialogue in Paris on 16 December 2024.