President Trump’s unorthodox diplomacy constitutes a challenge for Israel’s relations with Europe. But it might also create an opportunity
The Oval Office fallout between Presidents Trump and Zelensky –followed by horrified reactions from European leaders– has confirmed that we have reached a crosspoint where the US and the EU are at odds over the wars that are still raging in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. The grim mood in Europe was summarized thus by The Economist a week before the White House drama: “The past week has been the bleakest in Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Ukraine is being sold out, Russia is being rehabilitated and, under Donald Trump, America can no longer be counted on to come to Europe’s aid in wartime.”
This geopolitical angst constitutes a challenge for Israel’s foreign policy. In a choice between the United States and Europe, Israel will always choose the United States. But this understandable choice sometimes comes at a price, as exemplified by Israel’s latest vote at the UN General Assembly. On February 24, Israel voted, together with a small group of countries composed mostly of pro-Russian autocracies, against a resolution that condemned Russia for the war in Ukraine. While Israel’s vote was motivated by the choice to align with the Trump administration (which recently lifted restrictions on military supplies to Israel), it made the life of Israel’s advocates harder.
The widening gap between the United States and Europe admittedly complicates Israeli diplomacy. But it may also create a new opportunity.
The above-quoted editorial from The Economist claims that US Vice-President J.D. Vance “ridiculed Europe as decadent and undemocratic” in his speech at the Munich Conference on February 14. Did he? Vance questioned whether America and Europe still share the same values in light of the cancellation of an election in Romania and in light of what Vance described as an infringement upon the religious freedom of European Christians. He questioned the wisdom of enabling mass migration to Europe while denigrating voters who oppose this policy. Essentially, Vance advised Europeans to be more conservative if they want America to have their back.
Hence the diplomatic opportunity for Israel in Europe in the coming four years. There are currently six conservative European governments that are mostly sympathetic to Vance’s message and that are supportive of Israel: Italy, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Finland, Hungary, and Croatia. The conservative CSU/CDU party will form the next coalition government in Germany. Opinion polls suggest that a conservative majority will likely emerge from Norway’s upcoming election in September 2025. France and Spain are going to the polls in 2027, and in both countries staunchly conservative parties (the National Rally and Vox, respectively) are expected to be in government. Precisely because European parties with Trumpian sympathies and pro-Israel credentials are on the rise in Europe, Israel’s foreign ministry has initiated a discreet dialogue with some of them.
Which brings me back to J.D. Vance and to The Economist. In his Munich speech, Vance said the following: “I’ve heard a lot about what you need to defend yourselves from, and, of course, that’s important. But what has seemed a little bit less clear to me and certainly, I think, to many of the citizens of Europe, is what exactly it is that you’re defending yourselves for. What is the positive vision that animates this shared security compact that we all believe is so important?” This is a question to which Israel has a clear answer: the core values of the Greco-Roman and Judeo-Christian civilization, of which Israel is a pillar. It turns out that more and more European voters agree with that answer.
And it also turns out that Israel has what to offer to Europe. The Economist wrote this week that “Three years after Russia’s invasion Europe has not raised military spending nearly enough. It is trapped in an obsolete worldview of multilateral treaties and shared values … Europe’s urgent task is to relearn how to acquire and wield power … Defense spending will need to rise to the 4-5% of GDP that was normal during the cold war.” Europe is potentially an expanding market for Israel’s defense industry. If we wish to strengthen relations between Israel and Europe in the coming four years, we need to understand how Israel may turn to its advantage the current US-EU rift, and to fully leverage the evolution of European politics.